Demographic
dividend refers to economic growth
due to changes in the age
structure of the country's
population. The reason for the change in the age structure is usually a decrease in birth rate and death rate. Demographic dividends are events in a country whose economic growth has accelerated due to a decrease in birth and death rates. A country with a low birth rate and low death rate receives an economic
dividend or benefit from the increase in productivity of the working population. If fewer births are registered, the number of young dependents will decrease relative to
the working-age population. If there are fewer people to support and more work, financial resources are
freed up and invested in other areas to accelerate development. To
obtain a demographic dividend, a country must undergo a demographic transition. It moves from a largely rural economy with high birth and death rates to
an urban, industrial economy characterized by low birth and death rates. In the
initial phase of the transition, the birth rate falls, leading to a labor force
that temporarily grows faster than the dependent population. All else being
equal, per capita income will grow faster during this period. This
economic benefit is the first dividend that a country with demographic changes
will receive.
Demographic transition
Demographic change is a phenomenon and theory
that refers to the historical transition from high birth rates and high death
rates in societies with minimal technology, education (especially for women), and
economic development towards low birth rates and low death rates in technologically
advanced societies, education, and economic development and the stages between
these two scenarios. In terms of economic growth, a demographic transition has
swept the world over the last two centuries, and the unprecedented population
growth of the post-Malthusian period has been reversed, significantly lowering
birth rates and population growth in all regions of the world and making the
transition possible. . of economies. more benefits of factor accumulation and
technological progress on per capita income growth. Demographic changes strengthen
the economic growth process through three changes: (i) depletion of capital and
land resources, (ii) greater investment in human capital, and (iii) increase in
the labor force relative to the total population and changing age of the
population. Although this change has occurred in many
industrialized countries, the theory and models are often inaccurate.
Stages of demographic transition
Stage 1 - High birth and death rates cause slow
population growth- Stage 1 shows a high birth rate and high death rate which
causes a sluggish growth rate. The reasons for this can be poor medical
facilities, low education levels, poor infrastructure, and inequality between
men and women.
Stage 2 - Death rates decrease, but birth rates
remain high, leading to faster population growth. In stage 2 there is a
decrease in death rate but not in birth rate. The reason for this can be that
there were improvements in medical facilities which led to a decline in the death
rate but not in birth rates the mentality of people said more children leads to
more labor and more wages.
Stage 3 - The birth rate begins to decline, so population
growth begins to slow- In the third stage both birth rates and death rates start
declining the reason for which can be improved medical facilities and a change
in the mental statuses of people, but not as much and birth rates were still
higher.
Stage 4 - Birth rate catches up with death rate,
so population growth slows to zero- In stage 4 both birth rates and death rates
started to decline. But because of good medical facilities death rates were
very low as compared to birth rates.
India's demographic dividend
India is the world's most populous country, home
to one-sixth of the world's population and population. India overtook China as
the world's most populous country at the end of April 2023 with a population of
1,425,775,850, according to the United Nations. Between 1975 and 2010, the
population doubled to 1.2 billion and reached the billion mark in 200. India.
beat China to become the most populous country at the end of April 2023.
According to UN data released in April 2023, India beat China to become the #039
most populous country in the world. According to the UN's World Population
Panel and #039; India's population is now just over 1.428 billion, surpassing
China's 1.425 billion, as reported by Bloomberg. Its population is expected to
reach 1.7 billion by 2050. In 2017, its population growth was 0.98%, ranking
112th in the world. in contrast, between 1972 and 1983, the population of India
and the number 039 grew by 2.3% per year. 4,444 4,444 In 2022, the average age
of an Indian was 28.7 years, 38.4 in China and 48.6 in Japan; and until 2030;
India's maintenance rate is just over 0.4. However, the number of children in
India peaked more than a decade ago and is now declining. The number of
children under the age of five peaked in 2007 and has been declining since
then. The number of Indians under the age of 15 peaked a little later (in 2011)
and is now also declining. India is home to more than two thousand ethnic
groups, representing all major religions, as well as four major language
families (Indo-European, Dravidian, Austro-Asiatic, and Sino-Tibetan) and two
isolates: the NihalI language, which is spoken in parts. Maharashtra and
Burushaski, speaking parts of Jammu and Kashmir. There are 1,000,000
Anglo-Indians in India and 700,000 American citizens in India. They constitute
more than 0.1 percent of India's total population. In general, the linguistic,
genetic, and cultural diversity of the people of India is surpassed only by the
continent of Africa. The sex ratio was 944 women per 1000 male.
|
year
|
Population
|
Yearly
%change
|
Yearly
change
|
|
2024
|
1441719852
|
0.92%
|
13092189
|
|
2023
|
1428627663
|
0.81%
|
11454490
|
|
2022
|
1417173173
|
0.68%
|
9609331
|
|
2020
|
1396387127
|
0.96%
|
13275077
|
|
2015
|
1,322,866,505
|
1.29%
|
16450577
|
|
2010
|
1240613620
|
1.45%
|
17194981
|
|
2005
|
1154638713
|
1.62%
|
19001008
|
|
2000
|
1059633675
|
1.90%
|
19070909
|
Source: https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/italy-population/
The data provides population data for different
years, showing the population size, yearly percentage change, and yearly
change. The population has been steadily increasing over the years, with a
slight decrease in the yearly percentage change. The population has been
steadily increasing over the years, with a growth rate ranging from 0.68% to
1.90%. The data provides a summary of population growth over the years, showing
a consistent increase in population size with varying yearly percentage
changes. The data indicates a steady rise in population numbers over time.
There are several reasons for the high
population in India:
1. High
Birth Rate: India has traditionally had high birth rates
due to factors such as cultural norms, lack of awareness about contraception,
and limited access to family planning services in certain regions.
2. Decline
in Death Rate: Over the past few decades, advancements in
healthcare, sanitation, and nutrition have led to a significant decline in the
death rate in India. This has resulted in a higher population growth rate.
3. Improvements
in Healthcare: Improved healthcare infrastructure, including
better access to medical facilities and advances in medical technology, has
contributed to increased life expectancy and reduced mortality rates.
4. Social
and Cultural Factors: Cultural and religious beliefs, such as the
desire for large families and societal expectations, also influence population
growth in India.
5. Poverty
and Lack of Education: Poverty and lack of education are significant
factors contributing to high birth rates. Families with limited resources may
not have access to or awareness of contraception methods, and there may be
cultural barriers to family planning.
6. Gender
Inequality: Gender inequality, including limited access to
education and employment opportunities for women, can contribute to higher
fertility rates as women may have less control over reproductive decisions.
7. Urbanization: While
urbanization can lead to lower fertility rates over time, it initially
contributes to population growth as people migrate from rural to urban areas in
search of better economic opportunities.
Italy's demographic dividend
|
YEAR
|
POPULATION
|
YEARLY
% CHANGE
|
YEARLY
CHANGE
|
|
2024
|
5,86,97,744
|
-0.29%
|
-1,73,018
|
|
2023
|
5,88,70,762
|
-0.28%
|
-1,66,712
|
|
2022
|
5,90,37,474
|
-0.34%
|
-20,28,55
|
|
2020
|
5,95,00,579
|
-0.38%
|
-2,27,353
|
|
2015
|
6,02,32,906
|
0.14%
|
82,091
|
|
2010
|
5,98,22,450
|
0.55%
|
3,24,515
|
|
2005
|
5,81,99,876
|
0.43%
|
2,46,696
|
|
2000
|
5,69,66,397
|
0.03%
|
16,254
|
|
|
|
|
|
Source: https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/italy-population/
It is evident from the data that Italy’s
population is falling after 2015 and it was already as compared to others. It
is almost 50 million as of 2024. The older population is more in Italy as
compared to the younger population. The demographic dividend of Italy is not
very good as dependent people are more which will be a curse to Italy’s
government as they have to pay pensions and handle their expenses while no one
is there to increase the productivity in Italy.
The reason for this can be that very few women are giving birth. This is
because of Italy’s policy which says that if a woman gets pregnant she has to
leave her job or she will get fired from her job. The woman doesn’t want to
risk her job so they don’t conceive a baby and give birth.
The number of couples choosing to marry is
increasing, but fewer and fewer are choosing to reproduce, a new ISTAT study
has found. Between 2008 and 2016, there were 100,000 fewer births. A research
firm used the latest data and said parents of Italian descent are still less
likely to get pregnant than their predecessors.
ISTAT suggested that two factors contributed to
the decline in birth rates. There are now fewer women of childbearing age and
more and more are choosing not to give birth. The biggest decrease is seen in
couples where both partners are of Italian origin, but the decrease is also
seen in Italy where the parents are of foreign origin. Based on the latest
data, ISTAT said that 473,438 children were born in 2016, compared to 12,000 in
the previous year, however, the number of marriages has continued to rise since
2015, with more than 200,000 marriages celebrated this year. According to the
research firm, "On a generational basis, Italy's average number of
children per woman continues to decline from 2.5 children per woman born in the
early 1920s to 2 children per woman in the post-war generations ... to 1, 44
children per woman. woman in 1976." At the same time, the number of
childless women has increased by 10 percent since 1950. The Italian government
sought to reverse what Italian Health Minister Beatrice Lorenzini called an
"apocalypse" in 2014. Italy has a "baby bonus" where
families with newborns receive a grant of €80 per month to financially support
them for the first three years after birth. There has been talk of doubling the
bonus to encourage more couples, but that would increase public spending by
around 2.2 billion euros over six years, at a time when Italy's economic growth
has not picked up. The birth rate in Italy is one of the lowest in the European
Union, it has been associated with economic pressure on the married couples of
the country. According to a Business Insider report in September, only two days
of fully paid paternity leave are offered beyond that. Other factors also
contributed to the decline in the birth rate, such as high childcare costs.
Reason for the declining population in Italy
Italy's population decline can be attributed to
several interconnected factors:
1.
Low fertility rates: Italy has one of the lowest fertility rates
in Europe. The total fertility rate, which represents the average number of children
born to a woman during her lifetime, has been consistently below the
replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. Low fertility rates mean that
there are fewer births than deaths, contributing to population decline.
2.
Aging population: Italy has an aging population, with a
significant proportion of its population being elderly. As life expectancy
increases and fertility rates decline, the proportion of elderly people in the
population grows while the number of births decreases. This demographic shift
places strains on healthcare and social welfare systems and can impact economic
productivity.
3.
Emigration:
Italy has experienced significant emigration, particularly among young
people seeking better economic opportunities elsewhere in Europe or overseas.
Emigration reduces the population size and contributes to a decline in the
country's workforce.
4.
Cultural and social changes: Like many other developed countries, Italy
has experienced cultural and social changes that have influenced family
structures and attitudes towards marriage and child-rearing. Increasing
urbanization, changes in gender roles, and evolving social norms contribute to
delayed marriage and childbearing, which can impact fertility rates.
Reason for low fertility rate in women in Italy
1.
Changing societal norms and values: Italy, like many other Western countries,
has seen significant social changes over the past few decades. Attitudes
towards marriage, family, and childbearing have evolved, with more emphasis on
individual pursuits, careers, and lifestyle choices.
2.
Delaying marriage and childbirth: Italians, like many people in developed
countries, are delaying marriage and childbirth. Many individuals are focusing
on their education, careers, and personal development before starting families.
This delay can contribute to lower fertility rates, as fertility tends to
decline with age.
3.
Gender roles and work-life balance: Traditional gender roles and expectations
around childcare and household responsibilities persist in Italy, making it
challenging for women to balance work and family life. The lack of supportive
policies such as affordable childcare and parental leave can further discourage
couples from having children.
4.
Housing and living conditions: In urban areas, housing shortages and high
living costs make it difficult for families to find suitable housing for
raising children. Many young couples face challenges in finding affordable and
spacious accommodation that can accommodate a growing family.
Conclusion
The decline in the birthrate can be attributed to
a variety of factors, including a lack of stable jobs for young people and a
lack of childcare support for those who do have them. Pregnant women are often
forced to leave their jobs because they can't manage work and family, and then
struggle to get back into the workforce. Some women even get fired when they
become pregnant. One of the main reasons for the drop in the birthrate is the
lack of women of childbearing age. While the economic situation and lack of
social assistance can have an impact on the number of children, there is a
longer-term trend toward fewer women having children. The model of parenting
has also changed, as care standards have risen, leading to a greater emphasis
on the cost of raising a child, as well as a fear of putting your child at
risk. Successive
governments over the past decade
have offered various financial incentives to encourage people to start a
family, the latest being
a scheme launched by
former prime minister Mario Draghi's
government that offers families a monthly payment of
€50 (£44). and €175 for each newborn up to the age of 21 years.
The demographic dividend refers to the economic growth that occurs as a
result of changes in the age structure of a country's population, particularly
a decrease in birth and death rates. This creates a larger percentage of the
working-age population, leading to increased productivity and the potential for
economic development. To achieve a demographic dividend, a country must undergo
a demographic transition, moving from a rural economy with high birth and death
rates to an urban, industrial economy with low birth and death rates. This
transition is often accompanied by factors such as improved healthcare,
education, and technological advancements.
India, currently the world's most populous country, is experiencing a
demographic dividend due to its large working-age population and low birth and
death rates. However, concerns have been raised about low fertility rates and
an aging population. Italy, on the other hand, is facing a declining population
due to low fertility rates, an aging population, emigration, and changes in
societal values and norms. The low fertility rates in Italy can be attributed
to factors such as delayed marriage and childbirth, changing gender roles, and
lack of support for work-life balance and affordable housing.
Overall, the demographic dividend can
have significant implications for a country's economic growth and development,
but it is important
By
Divneet Kaur Ahuja, M.A Economics (2022-2024), School of Behavioural and Social Science (SBSS), Manav Rachna International Institute of Research and Studies (MRIIRS), Faridabad, Haryana. divneetahuja01@gmail.com
