The Economic Society of Manav Rachna International Institute of Research and Studies, "Economads", interviewed Dr Salahuddin Ayyub, Deputy Director of Service Export Promotion Council of India (SEPC), New Delhi. He has worked in both private and government organisations, including NITI Ayog, RIS and IIFT. The students of the Department of Economics, Faculty of Behavioural and Social Science (FBSS), Manav Rachna International Institute of Research and Studies (MRIIRS) interacted with Dr Ayyub regarding the research work focusing on the current situation and future perspective of the economic situation in India.
You have worked with many think tanks organizations like NITI Ayog, IIFT before joining SEPC? How was your experience in a think tank organization?
Yes, I have worked on a project for NITI Ayog. I have worked with IIFT, RIS and NUEPA which is a think tank for the ministry of education. Organization to organization you would’ve differently experience, depends on the nature of work, your profile and the work that is allocated to you. In government organizations like these think tanks, the work is in a time-bound manner, there is routine work there is not a lot of pressure although there would be a little pressure for example in my current job if any negotiation is happening with any country like currently, India is negotiating with the UK, GCC so they would want our inputs. Like SEPC is working as a bridge between industry and government so whatever is the required demand, or challenges they are facing we have to convey it to the ministry and if the ministry makes new policies, it’s our job to spread that knowledge. If it’s a project-based job and you have a six-month length, so you manage your job according to your conveyance but if it’s not a project you are working on in a process then it’s routine work.
As you have mentioned in your paperwork about the trade deficit of India, which gradually hampers bilateral trade not only with China but with other international countries as well. Do you think ramping up domestic manufacturing can be a better solution?
A trade deficit simply means you are importing more and exporting less and to increase the export you have to have more resources, manufacturing, supply and at the same time, you need to have demand for your product in the international market. You have to be competitive in the international market because so many countries are trying to tap the international market and you are one of them. So, you have to be competitive enough to compete with all those your competitors and then make your own space, it’s about increasing the manufacturing in such an effective manner that you are very competitive in terms of price in terms of the quality and you do a lot branding and marketing in the international market. When you export more automatically you would’ve trade surplus, for example in the service case we have a surplus of around 80 billion US Dollars surplus which is almost covering the merchandise trade deficit. To solve the problem of trade deficit we would have to increase our imports in a competitive market.
India is a developing country, how can India come up as a potential competition?
There are many products which are labour intensive, India does have many disadvantages being a developing country I agree but at the same time, we have a lot of advantages also, for example, we would have the cheap raw material, cheaper labour. In the case of textile, Bangladesh is doing well in textiles we used to be the top exporter in textiles but now Bangladesh has taken over they are manufacturing at a lower cost than India and this is the reason they have become the largest supplier of textiles in the world. Lower cost of production is something where India can utilize and manufacture labour intensive items in higher quantity, utilizing the economies of scale and then become more competitive in the international market.
It is commonly believed that the service sector is crucial to an economy’s growth, yet in your study paper ‘hidden market access barriers in China; India's export in electrical machinery (2014)’, you are strongly in favour that the manufacturing sector strengthens the economy. Do you think this argument still holds?
That paper talks about the hidden trade barriers which countries impose for example what is happening in the international forum at the WTO level we are giving commitments that every country has to reduce tariffs every country has to move to towards rapid liberalization, countries who are already developed may liberalize in a faster speed country which is not yet that developed will liberalize gradually. At WTO there is a commitment that everybody has to gradually liberalize and going to reduce the tariffs. But the main question addressed in the paper is that are these countries reducing the tax tariffs we came to this observation that on one side we are reducing the tariffs but on the other side we are increasing the non-ad Valorem tariffs. So, what matters in the end for an exporter is trade cost that is how much money you have to pay for your commodity to take from one place to another. Trade cost remains the same even if you liberalize.
As we all have been reading about the trade war between China and USA, there was an enormous number of assumptions and research, but now after the new president of the USA Mr Joe Biden, the condition between the two countries is much better. How do you think this new relationship will affect India?
These things keep happening, when we talk about trade war it looks like a “war” but if you look at the data the trade continues. You would read in some of the papers that even at the peak of the trade war between China and the USA the trade was happening, and the extra trade cost which was coming because of the trade war was being shared by the exporter and the importer, they were saying that 20% of share has come from this trade lets share it and let’s continue the trade. Because the trade is not happening only between companies it's intra-industry trade also the same apple is in the US, the same apple is in China. Traders would try to find ways to continue the trade because they have invested a lot and overnight, they cannot shift their investment from one country to another. And an investment is there, setup is there, manufacturing is there it is because of certain facts and these facts cannot be changed overnight. If the US think China would stop exporting goods to us because they have increased the tariffs, this will not happen. Take an example of India and China trade we have very high tariffs in case of inflows from China, 20%- 30% of tariffs sometimes even higher but still, lots of goods are coming from China the Indian market is flooded with Chinese products. Tariffs are just one factor you cannot control other factors. This is a very temporary phenomenon; India might get this advantage for a temporary period but in the long things are going to settle the same way
As mentioned in the SEPC monthly report, the online spend per shopper is expected to double by 2030. How do you think this will affect the offline market?
The offline market is already getting affected. The kind of crowd we used to see in shopping places is going down. People are more convenient in shopping online, and this is going to be the future that more people would prefer to shop online whereas gradually offline shopping would go down. There are many valid reasons for them to switch from offline to online shopping. And how much it would happen depends on how changes will come in future. This is, of course, uncertain, but the trend is saying that the future belongs to online shopping.
A huge chunk of the population doesn’t have internet access and at the same time, they also have a backward mindset about the quality of the product. What would you say about those people?
This is exactly what happened in Delhi when online shopping just entered the market. People used to sit back and think a lot about it and then end up going to malls for shopping. But, slowly and gradually, the mentality and the pattern changed and now they all rely on online shopping.
Online shopping has the strength of winning the trust and bringing the people on the platform.
The same situation is happening in the smaller cities. So, eventually, it will shift to smaller cities and then villages.
How is SEPC contributing to the ease of doing business of the Indian Economy? How do these buyer-seller meet, trade fairs, exhibitions, export promotion schemes help to facilitate this ranking?
The service trades happen in a very different manner compared to the merchandise trade. Merchandise trade happens when a product moves from one country to another country. But in the case of service trades there are four modes: -
- Cross-border supply where one sells their service abroad without moving yourself. This happens in IT Services, Telemedicine or Online Education as well.
- Consumption abroad supplies where the customer is coming to your country, taking services and going back. For example, foreign students, tourists, and patients.
- Commercial Presence Supply where your company setups a branch abroad and then starts services there. For example, Indian University puts campus in Dubai, Canada, etc.
- Movement of Natural Person where people move from one country to other countries to give services. For example, Indian doctors, teachers, etc.
The problem is that many service exporters do not even know that they are exporting. For example, a foreigner comes to stay at your hotel and pays you in the dollar. But you did not know that you are an exporter. SEPC tells them that they are an exporter. And as an exporter you are earning foreign exchange for the country; by this, the government has certain schemes for you as you are valuable to the government because they want to promote exports. So, people are brought to SEPC’s platform, understand their issues, convey them to the government, make them aware of the schemes, promote them through events, invite foreign buyers, take Indian business abroad and bring them out as a strong industry. SEPC is also in the process of developing a portal where all the India Service Exporters will be listed and foreign buyers can get connected through it. So, we are facilitating the Indian Service Exports in different ways within the limited resources that we have.
What are these schemes that these buyers and sellers should be aware of?
There is a scheme called the Services Exports from India Scheme (SEIS). In this, any services exporter who comes under the selected list of the services sector under the Ministry, get a 5%- 7% incentive from the government on their net foreign exchange earnings. For example, if you exported 100 crores, you would get around 5-7 crores from the government. But know there is a gaping of 5 crores so that more people could get chance in business. Then they have this scheme of Market Access Initiative (MAI) under which they sponsor services exporters to participate in international exhibitions, international events and fund their flights and basic amenities to reach there as well.
In this pandemic, where e-commerce is booming, and all the large companies and industries are thinking about going online permanent to be more efficient; India as a developing country that needs this kind of initiative has an issue of many unskilled labours, how can we overcome this problem?
When digitization was happening, things were shifting from manual to the computer. But, instead of pulling more employment towards it, it generated more employment. We have a huge IT industry which is contributing a lot to the GDP. Therefore, we have to think not just within the country, but we have to think globally. And about the skilled and non-skilled labours, there are so many things that can be done to increase the labour-intensity items. More development leads to more infrastructure and agriculture which automatically will provide skilled labours. When you go for bigger projects like highways, airports, it will generate labour and income due to which product will grow up. Moreover, to run an economy there isn’t a need for all the workers to be skilled. We need skilled and unskilled. But there should be balance, for which government and institutions need to come forward and give them skills and train them.
The field of economies has a wide range of employment opportunities, but at this stage, what can we students do to enhance our knowledge, so that we have better opportunities you think as worth experiencing?
Being a student, we don’t know what it is all about. And this is where the company’s set up internship programmes that make you understand whether you fit into that area or not or can you do it lifelong or not. Afterwards, it will depend on what kind of interest you have- you want to go into a social environment where you can directly contribute to society, or you want to earn money and have a white-collar job and sit in the office. Therefore, the best way to explore it is to go and meet people there, seem them what they are working about, join them and very importantly do internships in different fields. As most of the things are done in software, so as much software you can learn, it will be good for you. Learning doesn’t mean doing courses because you will end up forgetting them. You need to do the practice. You need to work. Generally, economics students are found to be not that good at writing. If you are good at writing, it will help you a lot, because you automatically have the data skills and writing skills will just add a better interpretation.
Written by: Ms Vanshika Jain (MA Economics), Ms Saba Sayyad, Ms Aarya Parida, Ms Siya Sardana, Mr Prashant Semwal (BA/BSc (Hons) Economics), Department of Economics, Faculty of Behavioural and Social Science (FBSS), Manav Rachna International Institute of Research and Studies (MRIIRS), Faridabad